ABSTRACT
The study aimed to understand variables, speculative assertions about future societal dynamics and various outcomes such as students’ beliefs and engagement in critical thinking, particularly in the context of predicting and analyzing future societal changes. The researchers utilized the descriptive research design, particularly the survey technique by using questionnaire. Moreover, the respondents of the study were the Grade 11 HUMSS Students of Nasugbu East Senior High School with total of 180. Overall, the study revealed that the prevalence of speculative assertions is often affected by decision making (WM = 3.44) planning strategy (WM = 3.39), and evidence-based analysis (WM = 3.44). Furthermore, the respondents often practice evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics in terms of problem solving (WM = 3.36), communication with the result (WM = 3.46), and feedback mechanism (WM = 3.46). Additionally, the respondents often consider internet, books, and news as source of information when predicting future societal dynamics (WM = 3.41). The researchers proposed a brochure to raise awareness on lack of evidence-based analysis in forecasting future societal dynamics and to improve the autonomy and decision-making abilities of the students.
Keywords: Speculative assertions, societal changes, decision making
INTRODUCTION
According to Fabrykan et. al. (2023), in comparison to non-experts, social scientists are better at anticipating trends in social phenomena. This points out a weakness in earlier forecasting efforts, as earlier research has mostly examined the likelihood of one-time events rather than the accuracy of predictions of broader societal change over time. It describes how governments, the public, and the media frequently turn to experts for advice and forecasts about the future, but it also presents research that suggests experts might not always do better at forecasting than purely stochastic models.
Social dynamics can refer to the behavior of groups that results from the interactions of individual group members as well to the study of the relationship between individual interactions and group level behaviors. The field of social dynamics brings together ideas from Economics, Sociology, Social Psychology, and other disciplines, and is a sub-field of complex adaptive systems or complexity science.
Understanding social dynamics provides context and insight into what is happening in society by looking at differences and similarities in communication styles, behaviors, and social norms for groups. Researchers focus on aspects including the expectations for people within groups, leadership and leadership styles, and conformity.
In the word of education, it is really important to figure out what people might they do as they grow up. But instead of using real facts and evidence, people just make guesses.
This research explores how predictions about the future behavior of the people often lack solid evidence and analysis. The researchers want to understand why some people rely on guesses instead of looking at the facts when trying to predict what senior high school students will be like in the future.
Using different ideas from education, sociology, psychology, and data analysis, we want to dig into why people tend to guess instead of using real evidence. The study aims to address this issue by conducting evidence-based analysis to better understand and forecast societal dynamics among senior high school students.
METHODOLOGY
The study used the descriptive research design to determine the Speculative Assertion of Grade 12 students of Nasugbu East Senior High School. Based on scibbr (2019), descriptive research design aims to accurately and systematically describe a population, situation or phenomenon. Descriptive research design can use a wide variety of research methods to investigate one or more variables. In this study, the method was utilized by obtaining information or data of Speculative Assertion of Grade 12 students in terms of decision making, planning strategy, evidence-based analysis, problem solving, communication with the result and feedback mechanism. The aforementioned variables were included in the research as it was deemed significant to the present study.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This section presents the data collected where the researcher is given interpretation and analysis.
1. The demographic profile of the respondents
a. Age
| Age | Frequency | Percentage |
| 15-25 years old | 180 | 100% |
| 26-35 years old | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 180 | 100% |
Table 1 shows the distribution of the respondents according to their age including the weighting and computed mean with its interpretation.
This table shows that the most significant number of respondents is the age of 15-25 years old, with a total number of 180. Such generation accounts for 100% of the total number of respondents. In addition, the least significant frequency of respondents in terms of age 26-35 years old, accounting for 0 and 0% of the total number of respondents.
b. Gender
Table 2 shows the distribution of the respondents according to their sex including the weighting and computed mean with its interpretation.
Distribution of respondents in terms of sex
| Gender | Frequency | Percentage |
| Male | 98 | 54% |
| Female | 82 | 46% |
| Total | 180 | 100% |
Table 2 shows the distribution of respondents according to sex. When the respondents are grouped according to their sex, male respondents comprised a more significant number than female respondents, 54%, 46% of the total respondents, respectively.
2. Prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics
a. Decision Making
Table 3 shows the prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics of the learners in terms of decision making with its weighted mean and interpretation.
| Statements | Weighted Mean | Interpretation |
| 1. I consider both short-term and long-term consequences before making a decision. | 3.57 | Often |
| 2. I trust my intuition to guide me in making decisions, even when faced with uncertainty. | 3.35 | Often |
| 3. I actively seek out information and opinions from others before making important decisions. | 3.47 | Often |
| 4. I am confident in my ability to make decisions quickly and efficiently, even under pressure. | 3.31 | Often |
| 5. I often reflect on past decisions to learn from my experiences and improve my decision-making skills. | 3.49 | Often |
| General Weighted Mean | 3.44 | Often |
This table shows the prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics of the learners in terms of decision making. The highest weighted mean of 3.57 that showed that the respondents consider both short-term and long-term consequences before making a decision. With an overall mean score of 3.44 means decision making often contribute to the prevalence of speculative assertions.
According to Russo (2023), decision-making is the process whereby an individual, group or organization reaches conclusions about what future actions to pursue given a set of objectives and limits on available resources. This process will be often iterative, involving issue-framing, intelligence-gathering, coming to conclusions and learning from experience.
b. Planning strategy
In Table 4, it shows the prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics of the learners in terms of planning strategy with its weighted mean and interpretation.
| Statements | Weighted Mean | Interpretation |
| 1. I outline the steps required to achieve my goals before taking action. | 3.4 | Often |
| 2. I adjust my plans based on new information or changing circumstances. | 3.38 | Often |
| 3. I prioritize tasks based on their importance and urgency. | 3.38 | Often |
| 4. I allocate sufficient time for planning to enhance the effectiveness of my strategies. | 3.38 | Often |
| 5. I seek feedback from others to improve my planning strategies. | 3.41 | Often |
| General Weighted Mean | 3.39 | Often |
This table shows the prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics of the learners in terms of planning strategy. The highest weighted mean of 3.41 that showed that seeking feedback from others improves the planning strategies of the respondents. With an overall mean score of 3.39 means planning strategy often contribute to the prevalence of speculative assertions.
According to Cote (2020), planning strategy is the ongoing organizational process of using available knowledge to document an intended direction. This process is used to prioritize efforts and effectively allocate resources.
c. Evidence-based analysis
Table 5 shows the prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics of the learners in terms of evidence-based analysis with its weighted mean and interpretation.
| Statements | Weighted Mean | Interpretation |
| 1. I evaluate available evidence before making decisions or forming opinions. | 3.54 | Often |
| 2. I seek out reliable sources of information to support my analysis and decision-making. | 3.48 | Often |
| 3. I use evidence-based practices to guide my problem-solving and decision-making processes. | 3.44 | Often |
| 4. I prioritize evidence-based approaches rather than intuitions. | 3.37 | Often |
| 5. I seek out multiple sources of evidence to support my analysis. | 3.39 | Often |
| General Weighted Mean | 3.44 | Often |
This table shows the prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics of the learners in terms of evidence-based analysis. The highest weighted mean of 3.54 showed that the respondents evaluate available evidence before making decisions or forming opinions. An overall mean score of 3.44 means evidence-based analysis often contribute to the prevalence of speculative assertions.
According to Cardoso et. al (2021), evidence-based practice is defined as “clinical decision-making that considers the best available evidence and prevents unsafe/inefficient practices and improves quality, but its implementation is challenging due to research and practice gaps.
3. Evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics Problem solving
Table 6 shows the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics in terms of problem solving with its weighted mean and interpretation
| Statements | Weighted Mean | Interpretation |
| 1. I approach problems with a systematic and structured method. | 3.36 | Often |
| 2. I am skilled at identifying root causes when faced with complex issues. | 3.32 | Often |
| 3. I actively seek creative solutions when traditional methods are insufficient. | 3.34 | Often |
| 4. I consistently evaluate the outcomes of my problem-solving efforts to learn and improve for future challenges. | 3.42 | Often |
| 5. I effectively collaborate with others to solve problems more efficiently. | 3.37 | Often |
| General Weighted Mean | 3.36 | Often |
This table shows the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics in terms of problem solving. The highest weighted mean of 3.42 showed that the respondents evaluate the outcomes of their problem-solving efforts to learn and improve for future challenges. With an overall mean score of 3.36 means often in the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics.
According to Simplilearn (2023), problem solving is the process of defining a problem, identifying its root cause, prioritizing and selecting potential solutions, and implementing the chosen solution. There’s no one-size-fits-all problem-solving process. Often, it’s a unique methodology that aligns your short- and long-term objectives with the resources at your disposal. Nonetheless, many paradigms center problem solving as a pathway for achieving one’s goals faster and smarter.
Communication with the result
Table 7 shows the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics in terms of communication with the result with its weighted mean and interpretation.
| Statements | Weighted Mean | Interpretation |
| 1. I clearly articulate my ideas and opinions to ensure understanding by others. | 3.52 | Often |
| 2. I actively listen to others' perspectives and respond thoughtfully in my communication. | 3.5 | Often |
| 3. I adapt my communication style to effectively convey information to different audiences. | 3.46 | Often |
| 4. I am skilled at persuading others and influencing outcomes through my communication. | 3.37 | Often |
| 5. I consistently follow up on communication to ensure that actions are taken and results are achieved. | 3.43 | Often |
| General Weighted Mean | 3.46 | Often |
This table shows the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics in terms of communication with the result. The highest weighted mean of 3.52 showed that the respondents clearly articulate their ideas and opinions to ensure understanding by others. With an overall mean score of 3.46 means often in the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics.
According to Reci et. al. (2017), communication with the result shows how to organize and simplify complex and dense information in an efficient and reader-friendly way.
c. Feedback mechanism
Table 8 shows the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics in terms of feedback mechanism with its weighted mean and interpretation.
| Statements | Weighted Mean | Interpretation |
| 1. I actively seek feedback from others to improve my performance and outcomes. | 3.5 | Often |
| 2. I am open to receiving constructive criticism and suggestions for improvement. | 3.39 | Often |
| 3. I provide timely and specific feedback to others to help them enhance their performance. | 3.45 | Often |
| 4. I utilize feedback received to adjust my strategies and approaches accordingly. | 3.45 | Often |
| 5. I regularly reflect on feedback received and take actionable steps to address areas for improvement. | 3.51 | Often |
| General Weighted Mean | 3.46 | Often |
This table shows the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics in terms of feedback mechanism. The highest weighted mean of 3.51 showed that the respondents regularly reflect on feedback received and take actionable steps to address areas for improvement. With an overall mean score of 3.46 means often in the evidence-based analysis in predicting future societal dynamics.
According to Wu et. al. (2021) feedback mechanism is an optimization model is built to minimize the total adjustment cost of reaching consensus by determining the personalized feedback adoption coefficient based on individuals’ consensus levels. Consequently, the proposed two-fold personalized feedback mechanism achieves a balance between group consensus and individual personality.
4. Sources of information when forecasting future societal dynamics
Table 9 shows the common sources of information when forecasting future societal dynamics with its weighted mean and interpretation.
| Statements | Weighted Mean | Interpretation |
| 1. I believe that news outlets provide reliable and timely data that is crucial for predicting future societal dynamics. | 3.5 | Often |
| 2. I trust that information obtained from the internet is diverse and helps in understanding various perspectives necessary for predicting societal trends. | 3.39 | Often |
| 3. I find that books, including both non-fiction and historical analyses, offer in-depth insights that are essential for forecasting long-term societal changes. | 3.45 | Often |
| 4. I combine information from news, the internet, and books to enhance the accuracy of predictions about future societal dynamics. | 3.45 | Often |
| 5. I verify the credibility of information from news, internet, and books to ensure the reliability of my predictions about societal trends. | 3.51 | Often |
| General Weighted Mean | 3.46 | Often |
This table shows the common sources of information when forecasting future societal dynamics. The highest weighted mean of 3.51 showed that the respondents verify the credibility of information from news, internet, and books to ensure the reliability of their predictions about societal trends. With an overall mean score of 3.46 means often in the common sources of information when forecasting future societal dynamics.
According to Westerman et al. (2013), the study states that social media are increasingly being used as an information source, including information related to risks and crises. The current study examines how pieces of information available in social media impact perceptions of source credibility.
CONCLUSIONS
The following statements are conclusions drawn from the finding:
1. The survey primarily captures the perspectives of the 15-25 years old group, indicating a focus on this specific demographic. The majority of the respondents are male, indicating an implication for understanding the perspectives of female students in the study.
2. Factors such as decision making, planning strategy, and evidence-based analysis contribute to the prevalence of speculative assertions in forecasting future societal dynamics among senior high school students. The respondents often consider decision making where they make choices by identifying a decision, gathering information, and assessing alternative resolutions. On the other hand, the respondents often make planning strategy in forecasting future societal dynamics by setting priorities, focusing energy and resources, and strengthen operations. Additionally, the respondents often consider evidence-based analysis by making prior research in systematic way when forecasting future societal dynamics.
3. Factors such as problem solving, communication with the result, and feedback mechanism contribute to the prevalence of speculative assertion in forecasting future societal dynamics among senior high school students. The respondents often make a problem solving to identify issues, root causes, and evaluate outcome. On the other hand, respondents often consider communication with the result when making a communication to identify critical thinking and clear and concise information. Additionally respondent often consider feedback mechanism by improving valuable insight into performance of future societal dynamics.
4. The respondents’ common sources of information when making predictions on future societal dynamics are books and internet, identifying and gathering information about future societal dynamics.
RECOMMENDATIONS
From the result of the study which was to assess the lack of evidence-based analysis in forecasting future societal dynamics among grade 11 HUMSS students at Nasugbu East Senior High School, these are the recommendations of the researcher to the beneficiary of this study:
1. To the future researchers, expand the demographic representation by make an equal number of respondents in future surveys and consider capturing perspectives of both male and female students. To the school, promote inclusivity and engagement on participation in surveys.
2. To the students, focus on enhancing methodological rigor in decision making, planning strategy, and evidence-based analysis. Integrate established decision-making frameworks and planning strategy in forecasting future societal dynamics. Additionally, the students must emphasize evidence-based analysis by conducting thorough systematic research, ensuring reliability and validity of forecasts.
3. To future researchers, for effectively address problem-solving, communication, and feedback, establish a regular, structured meeting cycle where team members can discuss ongoing issues, present solutions, and provide feedback in a supportive environment. This approach ensures that problems are clearly understood and addressed collaboratively, solutions are communicated transparently, and continuous feedback is integrated into the process for ongoing improvement.
4. To future researchers, utilize a variety of sources of information when making predictions about future societal dynamics such as media, news organizations, official documents, and personal experiences. Complement the use of books and the internet with interactive workshops or seminars led by professionals from various fields.